Copyright

(c) 2018 Jon L Gelman, All Rights Reserved.

Friday, April 6, 2018

2018 Hurricane Season Predicted to be Slightly Above-Average

The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season has been predicted to be slightly above-average. The report comes from researchers at the Colorado State University (CSU).

Photo Credit: Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science
"We anticipate that the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly above-average activity. The current weak La Niña event appears likely to transition to neutral ENSO over the next several months, but at this point, we do not anticipate a significant El Niño event this summer/fall. The western tropical Atlantic is anomalously warm right now, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are anomalously cool. Consequently, our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is near its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

The annual tracking report is helpful to anticipate what precautions should be taken to protect the health and safety of those who may be impacted by anticipated hurricane activity. 

CSU is predicting the following:

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2018 
Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Median (in parentheses) 
Issue Date 5 April 2018 

Named Storms (NS) (12.0) 14 
Named Storm Days (NSD) (60.1) 70 
Hurricanes (H) (6.5) 7 
Hurricane Days (HD) (21.3) 30 
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) 3 
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (3.9) 7 
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92) 130 
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (103%) 135

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) 
HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS: 
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline - 63% (average for last century is 52%) 
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 39% (average for last century is 31%) 
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 38% (average for last century is 30%) 

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W) 
1) 52% (average for last century is 42%)