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(c) 2018 Jon L Gelman, All Rights Reserved.

Thursday, February 16, 2017

The Consequences of TrumpMedical 2016–25: Price Increases, Aging Push Sector To 20 Percent Of Economy

Workers' Compensation medical expenses mirror some of the national health care projections. An aging workforce and the increased longevity of the population impacts overall all costs. Furthermore as the Affordable Healthcare Act's repeal has been anticipated by the Republican Administration, medical care costs are anticipated to spiral. The draft release of the Republican proposal for a new national medical care system is now being revealed.


Directly and indirectly, workers' compensation coverage will feel the impact. For chronic condition denials, pre-existing condition denials and occupational disease denials, the safety net of Medicaid will be diminished and the workers' compensation system will again be the primary target for payment and litigation will increase logarithmically.



A recent report reflects the concerns of the new data:
"Under current law, national health expenditures are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.6 percent for 2016–25 and represent 19.9 percent of gross domestic product by 2025. For 2016, national health expenditure growth is anticipated to have slowed 1.1 percentage points to 4.8 percent, as a result of slower Medicaid and prescription drug spending growth. For the rest of the projection period, faster projected growth in medical prices is partly offset by slower projected growth in the use and intensity of medical goods and services, relative to that observed in 2014–16 associated with the Affordable Care Act coverage expansions. The insured share of the population is projected to increase from 90.9 percent in 2015 to 91.5 percent by 2025.
Additional findings from the report data:

Total national health spending growth: Growth is projected to have been 4.8 percent in 2016, slower than the 5.8 percent growth in 2015, as a result of slower Medicaid and prescription drug spending growth. In 2017, total health spending is projected to grow by 5.4 percent, led by increases in private health insurance spending. National health expenditure growth is projected to be faster and average 5.8 percent for 2018-2025 largely due to expected faster spending growth in both Medicare and Medicaid.

Medicare: Medicare spending growth is projected to have been 5.0 percent in 2016 and is expected to average 7.1 percent over the full projection period 2016-2025. Faster expected growth after 2016 primarily reflects utilization of Medicare covered services increasing to approach rates closer to Medicare’s longer historical experience. This results in Medicare spending per beneficiary growth of 4.1 percent over 2016-2025 (compared to 1.6 percent growth for 2010-2015).

Private health insurance: Spending growth is projected to have slowed from 7.2 percent in 2015 to 5.9 percent in 2016, a trend that is related to slower growth in private health insurance enrollment. Spending growth is projected to increase to 6.5 percent in 2017, due in part to faster premium growth in Marketplace plans related to previous underpricing of premiums and the end of the temporary risk corridors.

Medicaid: Projected spending growth slowed significantly in 2016 to 3.7 percent, down from 9.7 percent in 2015, largely reflecting slower growth in Medicaid enrollment. Spending growth is expected to accelerate and average 5.7 percent for 2017-2025 as projected per-enrollee spending growth rises over that timeframe. Underlying the faster per enrollee growth is the increasingly larger share of the Medicaid population who are aged and disabled and who tend to use more intensive services.

Medical price inflation: Medical prices are expected to increase more rapidly after historically low growth in 2015 of 0.8 percent to nearly 3 percent by 2025. This faster projected growth in prices is influenced by an acceleration in both economy-wide prices and medical specific prices and is projected to be partially offset by slowing growth in the use and intensity of medical goods and services.

Prescription drug spending: Drug spending growth is projected to have been 5.0 percent in 2016, following growth of 9.0 percent in 2015, mainly due to slowing use of expensive drugs that treat Hepatitis C. Growth is projected to average 6.4 percent per year for 2017-2025, influenced by higher spending on expensive specialty drugs.

Insured Share of the Population: The proportion of the population with health insurance is projected to increase from 90.9 percent in 2015 to 91.5 percent in 2025.




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