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Showing posts with label Gross domestic product. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gross domestic product. Show all posts

Monday, January 13, 2014

U.S. workers’ comp industry revenues could decline

In a new report, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services predicts revenues for the U.S. workers’ compensation insurance industry could decline amid economic weakness and an unsettled labor market.
“We remain pessimistic about the near-term profitability prospects for the U.S. workers’ compensation market despite improved pricing in the past couple of years,” said S&P credit analyst Siddhartha Ghosh. “We base our cautious view of the industry on such factors as continuing high unemployment levels and economic uncertainty, potential adverse reserve development, higher health care costs, and emerging risks like the expiration of Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act in 2014 and significant uncertainty regarding the ACA.”
In its recent report, S&P explains that demand for workers’ compensation in the U.S. depends greatly on economic cycles with a strong correlation between premium growth for workers’ compensation insurance and the state of the labor market.
S&P cited unemployment and the GDP as affecting premium growth, noting that consumers remain worried, wages are virtually stagnant, unemployment remains high and the cost of living is rising.
Concerns about the on-and-off political gridlock in Washington, D.C., uncertainty about the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and the potential for higher interest rates remain foremost on the minds of many, according to S&P.
Reauthorization...
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Thursday, November 28, 2013

Saving Academic Medicine from Obsolescence

Today's post was shared by NEJM and comes from blogs.hbr.org
by Benjamin P. Sachs, Ralph Maurer, Steven A. Wartman and Marc J. Kahn  |   10:00 AM November 8, 2013
The United States spent 17.9% of the GDP on healthcare in 2012. Academic medicine, which makes up, approximately, 20% of these costs ($540 billion), is under profound threat. Teaching hospitals and medical schools are faced with declining clinical revenue, dwindling research dollars and increasing tuition costs. To meet these challenges, we believe academic medicine must embrace disruptive innovation in its core missions: educating the next generation of health professionals, offering comprehensive cutting-edge patient care, and leading biomedical and clinical research.  Medical schools and academic health centers will need to significantly adapt in each of these areas in order to ensure the long-term health of the medical profession. The following are a few examples of disruptive innovations Tulane School of Medicine has embraced.        
Medical information doubles roughly every five years, making it impossible for physicians to stay current. Computing power has also increased to the point that machines like IBM’s Watson, first programed to play chess and Jeopardy, are now used to diagnose and recommend treatment for patients.  Mary Cummings, one of the first women aviators to land a plane on an aircraft carrier, faced a similar situation when she left the navy; a computer was replacing...
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Saturday, September 21, 2013

Health Care Spending Will Peak Around 2025 and Then Flatten Out

Recent comment to the cost of medical care in for injured workers appear to reflect that it is a "boomer generation" factor. The question is whether the workers' compensation system can wait until 2025 or will it be dead by then as a result of medical costs. Today's post was shared by Mother Jones and comes from www.motherjones.com


This is apropos of nothing. I happened to be fiddling around with CMS health care expenditures and decided to take a look at how spending has increased year-over-year as a share of GDP for the past four decades. (Example: If spending increases from a 16 percent share of GDP to a 16.4 percent share of GDP, that's a year-over-year 2.5 percent growth rate.)

The chart below is a rolling 5-year average to smooth out the noise. Roughly speaking, it shows a steady decrease in the growth rate. If things continue along these lines, health care spending will continue increasing until it reaches about 21-22 percent of GDP sometime in the mid-2020s. The aging of the baby boom generation might send that number a little higher, but not by a lot, I suspect.

The mechanism is simple: As spending goes up, our collective resistance to higher spending increases, and that's the ultimate brake on health care expenditures. I'm willing to bet that U.S. spending on health care will never top 25 percent of GDP. It might not even top 23 percent.

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