California's Drought Could Be the Worst in 500 Years

California's workers' compensation system is about to be afflicted with yet another issue....drought and its economic consequences upon the workers' compensation system. Today's post was shared by Mother Jones and comes from www.motherjones.com

The remains of Cachuma Lake, the main water source for 200,000 people in southern Santa Barbara County. Ruaridh Stewart/ZUMA The Golden State is in the midst of a three-year drought—and scientists believe that this year may end up being the driest in the last half millennium, according to University of California-Berkeley professor B. Lynn Ingram. Californians are scared, with good reason: Fire danger in the state is high, and drinking-water supplies are low. But the drought will have repercussions outside the state's borders, as well. California produces a good chunk of the nation's food: half of all our fruits and vegetables, along with a significant amount of dairy and wine. So how will this historically dry period affect Californians—and the rest of us? Here are a few important facts to keep in mind: How bad is it? According to the United States Drought Monitor, most of the state is experiencing "extreme drought," the second highest of six rankings. About 10 percent of the state is experiencing "exceptional drought," the highest possible level. As of this week, 17 communities are in danger of running out of water, forcing some to buy it or run pipes from other districts. CA drought map CA drought map key What do scientists say about the drought? Scientists can't predict how wet or dry a specific season is going to be, but they can forecast drought trends over time, and they've been warning us for decades that the droughts will become...

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Rescinding the Cuts to Veteran's Pensions Was In the Cards From the Start

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December's budget deal between Paul Ryan and Patty Murray included a bit of relief from the 2011 sequestration cuts, with the relief split evenly between domestic and military budgets. That even split was one of the guiding principles of the deal. But part of the military relief was paid for by $7 billion in cuts to veterans' pensions, something that immediately prompted a storm of protest and, eventually, a move to rescind the cuts. Jared Bernstein comments: True, that’s not huge bucks in the scheme of things. But the violation of this budget principle should not be taken lightly. A key point of the budget machinations that brought us to where we are today is that automatic spending cuts should be split between evenly between defense and non-defense (forget for a moment, that it’s not the discretionary side of the budget that’s responsible for our longer term fiscal challenges anyway). If Congress starts stealing from domestic programs to boost defense, it will unfairly and unwisely exacerbate already unsustainable pressures on domestic spending. I'd take a slightly different lesson from this: Democrats got snookered. Only a little bit, and they knew they were being played, but they still got snookered. It was obvious from the start that cuts to veterans' benefits would be unpopular and unlikely to stand, but Democrats agreed to them anyway in order to get the budget deal across the finish line. Maybe that was the right thing to do, but it was no...

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Lead and Crime: It's a Brain Thing

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When I wrote my big piece last year about the connection between childhood exposure to lead and rates of violent crime later in life, one of the big pushbacks came from folks who are skeptical of econometric studies. Sure, the level of lead exposure over time looks like an inverted U, and so does the national rate of violent crime. But hey: correlation is not causation. I actually addressed this in my piece—twice, I think—but I always felt like I didn't address it quite clearly enough. The article spent so much time up front explaining the statistical correlations that it made the subsequent points about other evidence seem a bit like hasty bolt-ons, put there mainly to check off a box against possible criticism. That's not how I intended it,1 but that's how it turned out. For that reason, I'm pleased to recommend Lauren Wolf's "The Crimes Of Lead," in the current issue of Chemical & Engineering News. It doesn't ignore the statistical evidence, but it focuses primarily on the physiological evidence that implicates lead with higher levels of violent crime: Research has shown that lead exposure does indeed make lab animals—rodents, monkeys, even cats—more prone to aggression. But establishing biological plausibility for the lead-crime argument hasn’t been as clear-cut for molecular-level studies of the brain. Lead wreaks a lot of havoc on the central nervous system. So pinpointing one—or even a few—molecular switches by...

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How the West Virginia Spill Exposes Our Lax Chemical Laws

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Site of the spill on the Elk River in West VirginiaFoo Connor/Flickr The West Virginia chemical spill that left some 300,000 people without access to water has exposed a gaping hole in the country's chemical regulatory system, according to environmental experts. Much the state remains under a drinking-water advisory after the spill last week into the Elk River near a water treatment facility. As much as 7,500 gallons of the chemical 4-methylcyclohexane methanol, which is used in the washing of coal, leaked from a tank owned by a company called Freedom Industries. A rush on bottled water ensued, leading to empty store shelves and emergency water delivery operations. According to news reports, 10 people were hospitalized following the leak, but none in serious condition. The spill and ensuing drinking water shortage have drawn attention to a very lax system governing the use of chemicals, according to Richard Denison, a senior scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund who specializes in chemical regulation. "Here we have a situation where we suddenly have a spill of a chemical, and little or no information is available on that chemical," says Denison. West Virginia store shelf. The problem is not necessarily that 4-methylcyclohexane methanol, or MCHM, is highly toxic. Rather, Denison says, the problem is that not a great deal about its toxicity is known. Denison has managed to track down a description of one 1990 study, conducted by manufacturer Eastman Chemical,...

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What Do We Know About the Chemical That Just Spilled in West Virginia?

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The chemical that leaked yesterday into a West Virginia river "hasn't been studied very well," says Deborah Blum, a New York Times science columnist who specializes in reporting on chemistry. A state of emergency was declared for nine West Virginia counties yesterday after a chemical called 4-Methylcyclohexane Methanol spilled into the Elk River. The chemical is "used to wash coal of impurities," according to the Times. The chemical leaked from a holding tank owned by a company called Freedom Industries, according to West Virginia American Water, a water company operating in the region. At present, the nine counties are under a "do not use" advisory from West Virginia American Water, and residents there do not know when they will be able to turn on their taps. A rush on bottled water subsequently ensued, as documented in this tweet from a local news anchor: Undoubtedly much more information will emerge on 4-Methylcyclohexane Methanol and how dangerous it is (or isn't) in water. But to start things off we turned to Blum, who was just a guest on our Inquiring Minds podcast. "We know methanol is toxic, we know that methylcyclohexane is moderately toxic, but I haven't seen a full analysis of the entire formula," says Blum....

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Charts: The Worst Long-Term Unemployment Crisis Since the Depression

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Officially, the Great Recession of 2007 ended in June 2009. Yet the economic downturn remains in full effect for millions of Americans, particularly the nearly 40 percent of the unemployed who have been looking for work for six months or more. In less than a week, emergency federal unemployment benefits for 1.3 million of these jobless Americans are set to run out. Proponents of ending the benefits argue that the economy is expanding and that the benefits prevent people from finding work. "You get out of a recession by encouraging employment not encouraging unemployment," according to Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who opposes extending benefits. However, the data shows that while corporate America has bounced back, it is not restoring all the jobs it shed when the economy tanked five years ago. Currently, nearly 11 million Americans are unemployed. The unemployment rate stands at 7 percent. Both of those stats are improvements from a little more than four years ago, when the post-recession jobless rate peaked at 10 percent and more than 15 million people were out of work. However, there currently are more than 4 million Americans who have been unemployed for six months or longer. Not since the Great Depression has the United States experienced such massive and persistent long-term unemployment. Overall, the long-term unemployed (those with out a job for six months or longer) make up nearly 40 percent of all the jobless. Long-term unemployment has not affected...

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10 Reasons That Long-Term Unemployment Is a National Catastrophe

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Unemployment is bad. Obviously long-term unemployment is worse. But it's not just a little worse, it's horrifically worse. As a companion to our eight charts that describe the problem, here are the top ten reasons why long-term unemployment is such a national catastrophe: It's way higher than it's ever been before. When the headline unemployment rate peaked in 2010, it was actually a bit lower than the peak during the 1980 recession and only a point higher than the 1973 recession. As bad as it was, it was something we'd faced before. But the long-term unemployment rate is a whole different story. It peaked at a rate nearly double the worst we'd ever seen in the past, and it's been coming down only slowly ever since. It's widespread. There's a common belief that long-term unemployment mostly affects older workers and only in certain industries. In fact, with the exception of the construction industry, which was hurt especially badly during the 2007-08 recession, "the long-term unemployed are fairly evenly distributed across the age and industry spectrum." It's brutal. Obviously long-term unemployment produces a sharp loss of income, with all the stress that entails. But it does more. It produces deep distress, worse mental and physical health, higher mortality rates, hampers children’s educational progress, and lowers their future earnings. Megan McArdle summarizes the research findings this way: "Short of death or a debilitating terminal disease,...

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Self-Promotion Watch: Lead and Crime in Postwar America

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I'm usually a little reticent about tooting my own horn, but since I've always had a lot of respect for James Surowiecki, I was sort of chuffed to see this in his year-end roundup of his favorite business stories: Kevin Drum’s brilliant Mother Jones piece, “America’s Real Criminal Element: Lead,” explores the relationship between lead in the environment and crime (and a host of other social ills). It is not, I guess, a classic business story. But it’s a rigorous and enormously enlightening look at how businesses’ and regulators’ choices—in this case, the decision to keep lead in gasoline and paint—end up shaping society in ways that few expect. I’m not entirely sure that lead explains the entire drop in crime we’ve seen in cities across America. But Drum has certainly convinced me that getting lead out of the environment is one of the best, and most cost-effective, social interventions that regulators can make. Thanks, James! More here for those who want to dive into some of the other reaction to the lead-crime story, as well as a few items that got left on the cutting room floor.

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Charts: Why Fast-Food Workers Are Going on Strike

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This Thursday, fast-food workers in more than 100 cities are planning a one-day strike to demand a "livable" wage of $15 an hour. They have a point: The lowest-paid Americans are struggling to keep up with the cost of living—and they have seen none of the gains experienced by the country's top earners. While average incomes of the top 1 percent grew more than 270 percent since 1960, those of the bottom 90 percent grew 22 percent. And the real value of the minimum wage barely budged, increasing a total of 7 percent over those decades. More of the numbers behind the strike and the renewed calls to raise the minimum wage: Median hourly wage for fast-food workers nationwide: $8.94/hour Increase in real median wages for food service workers since 1999: $0.10/hour Last time the federal minimum wage exceeded $8.94/hour (in 2012 dollars): 1968 Change in the real value of the minimum wage since 1968: -22% Median age of fast-food workers: 29 Median age of female fast-food workers: 32 Percentage of fast-food workers who are women: 65% Percentage of fast-food workers older than 20 who have kids: 36% Income of someone earning $8.94/hour: $18,595/year Federal poverty line for a family of three: $17,916/year Income of someone earning $15/hour: $31,200/year Income needed for a "secure yet modest" living for a family with two adults and one child… In the New York City area: $77,378/year In rural Mississippi: $47,154/year Growth in average real income of the top 1 percent since 1960: 271% What the...

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